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: Future Issues (26)

Open Directory - Society: Issues: Warfare and Conflict: Future Issues

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Society: Issues: Terrorism (653)
Society: Issues: Warfare and Conflict: Information Warfare (9)
Society: Issues: Warfare and Conflict: Weapons (245)

A 21st. Century Security Architecture for the Americas: Multilateral Cooperation, Liberal Peace and Soft Power. - A paper showing a response to the question of "How can the United States best develop security cooperation within the Americas?" by Col. Joseph R. Nunez. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, August 2002.
A Warning from Clausewitz on 4GW - William S. Lind alerts about the dangers for USA of being the only superpower. CounterPunch, March 2003.
Beyond vom Kriege: The Character and Conduct of Modern War - An effort to understand war and the role of armed forces in modern societies, based on the last years experiences and the classic theories. Author: R.D.Hooker Jr., Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly , Summer 2005. [PDF]
Bury Cold War Mindset: Fourth Generation Warfare Rewrites Military Strategy - Article by Jack Shanahan, Chet Richards and Franklin Spinney, 2002. Describes fourth-generation warfare that pits nations against non-national organizations or networks that include not only fundamentalist extremists, but also ethnic factions, mafias and narcotics traffickers.
Fighting in the Gray Zone. A Strategy to Close the Preemption Gap. - The US 2002 National Security Strategy (NSS) identified the proliferation, privatization, and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist groups and rogue states as the critical nontraditional threat of the 21st century. Published in September 2004, US Army War College. Authored by Joanne M. Fish, Samuel F. McCraw and Christopher J. Reddish.
Fourth Generation Warfare - Slide show that summarizes the key aspects of asymmetric conflicts, by Greg Wilcox and G.I. Wilson for Boyd Comference, 2002. [PDF]
From Kadesh to Kandahar: Military Theory and the Future of War. - The challenges of post-modern war from a multidimensional point of view, by Michael Evans, Naval War College Review, Summer 2003.
Global Guerrillas: 4GW -- Fourth Generation Warfare - An overview of the key concepts by John Robb, May 2004.
Globalization and the Nature of War - The article shows how globalization is enhancing the role of political guidance and changing the nature of war. Author: Antulio Echevarria II. Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the US Army War College, 2003.
Matrix Warfare: The New Face of Competition and Conflict in the 21st Century - A description of new organizational patterns and their application to war and business. By J. Noel Williams for Small Wars Journal, USA, August 2005. (pdf file) [PDF]
May the Smartest Machine Win: Warfare in the 21st Century - Article from Raymond Kurzweil on future methods of fighting, including pilotless planes and thinking machines. Published in 1993.
NIC - 2020 Project - Information about a research project aimed at covering influences that would shape the world to the year 2020. Contains papers about the nature of future conflicts. Sponsored by the US National Intelligence Council.
Nanotechnology and International Security - How technologies emerging over the coming decades will undermine military stability while causing economic and political turmoil. The need to move beyond deterrence to an integrated international security system. Article by Mark Avrum Gubrud, Center for Superconductivity Research, University of Maryland, 1997.
Nation-State Failure: A Recurring Phenomenon? - Analyzes the weakness and failure of nation-states as a potential source of future conflicts. Essay by Robert Rotberg, for NIC 2020 Project, Inaugural Workshop, November 2003. [PDF]
Past and Future of Nuclear War - Transcript of a talk given at American University, April 2002, with edits.
Recognizing and Understanding Revolutionary Change in Warfare: The Sovereignty of Context - Strategic Studies Institute - The author, Colin S. Gray, provides a critical audit of the great RMA debate and of some actual RMA behavior and warns against a transformation that is highly potent only in a narrow range of strategic cases. He warns that the military effectiveness of a process of revolutionary change in a "way of war" can only be judged by the test of battle, and possibly not even then. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, February 2006. [PDF]
The Dangers of Warfare in a Media Age - The author alerts about the dangers of the contemporary media age, in which events across the world are instantly brought before vast international audiences, for example, that tomorrow’s wars could be at risk of being overly influenced by the views of spectator audiences, at the expense of the considerations that ought to guide policy-makers, such as the assessment of the national interest. By Roger Howard, April 2003.
The Future of War and the American Military - Shows how the process of developing and building new weapons, as does the process of recruiting and training new military officers takes decades, so that, leaders need to be futurists by making statements, implicitly or explicitly, about what they think will be useful many years ahead. By, Stephen Peter Rosen, Harvard Magazine, May-June 2002.
The Network Is the Battlefield - The Pentagon's aim is to meld weapons systems and people into a whole, called network-centric warfare, that's greater than the sum of its parts. From Business Week Online, January 2003.
The New Craft of Intelligence: Achieving Asymmetric Advantage in the Face of Non Traditional Threats - A paper where the author, Robert M. Steele, examines two paradigm shifts--one in relation to the threat and a second in relation to intelligence methods-- while offering a new model for threat analysis and a new model for intelligence operations in non-traditional asymmetric warfare. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, February 2002.
The War in Iraq: the Nature of Insurgency Warfare - An overview of the challenges derived from this revitalized kind of war. Andrew Krepinevich, Jun 2004. [PDF]
Toward the 21st Century: Trends in Post-Cold War International Security - Addresses key changes since the Cold War ended, lessons, current problems and issues. Commissioned by the Swiss Ministry of Defense, 1998.
Violent Conflict in the 21st Century: Causes, Instruments, and Mitigation - Collection of essays including 'The New Evils of the 21st Century' by Robert D. Kaplan; 'Weapons of Mass Destruction and Physical Heritage of the Cold War' by W.K.H. Panofsky and 'Group Loyalty and Ethnic Violence' by Donald L. Horowitz. [PDF]
Warfare in the 21st Century - Books, documents, articles and web sites. References gathered in a selected bibliography compiled by Jane E. Gibish, U.S. Army War College Library, July 2003.
Watch on the West: War and Strategy in the 21st Century - Describes how events in the Twenty-first Century will test the limits to American strength but not its fundamentals and postulates that these tests will underscore the inability of technology to overcome all challenges, by Jeremy Black, February 2002.
Welcome to the Postmodern Warfare Era - An anticipatory article by David Isenberg, October 2000.

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